02017nas a2200229   4500008004100000245007600041210006900117300001300186490000700199520128200206653001901488653001501507653003501522653001701557653002701574653001201601653002101613100001501634700001801649700002101667856009901688       2007                        eng d00aDemographic response of a grassland rodent to environmental variability0 aDemographic response of a grassland rodent to environmental vari  a982 -9880 v883 aWe used stage-structured matrix population models, derived from 3 years with disparate levels of precipitation, to assess the potential effects of climate change on annual population growth (λ) of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). Populations of deer mice increased during a year of normal precipitation (λ = 1.69 ± 0.02 SE) and a wet year (λ = 1.03 ± 0.02), but declined in a dry year (λ = 0.34 ± 0.02). Life-table response experiment analyses indicated that reduced survival of adults in the dry year, and reduced survival of pups and juveniles in the wet year, exerted the greatest influence on variation in population growth. Stochastic models that projected populations of deer mice for a 50-year period predicted that populations would not be able to persist if mean annual precipitation was reduced ≥11% by increasing the frequency of dry years. Furthermore, the stochastic population growth rate declined more quickly when the probability of a normal year was reduced, simulating increased variability in rainfall, relative to other scenarios examined. Our stochastic models indicate that a relatively small reduction in mean precipitation could result in substantial population declines of P. maniculatus in the mixed-grass prairie of central North America.10aClimate change10adeer mouse10alife-table response experiment10amatrix model10aPeromyscus maniculatus10aprairie10astochastic model1 aReed, A.W.1 aKaufman, G.A.1 aSandercock, B.K.  uhttp://knz.lternet.edu/content/demographic-response-grassland-rodent-environmental-variability